Things to Watch to Determine if the Economy is Improving

Short term, there are several indicators which can be observed to give an idea of the state of the economy:

1. The so called "TED spread" or difference between LIBOR and US Treasuries. Ideally, watch the 3 month figure, which is normally about 1%:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP%3AIND

2. Commodities prices. Oil is a good indicator of confidence in the economy. Commodities and oil in free fall are an omen of lack of confidence. Consumption might also be useful to watch:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/crude2.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=DOEDMGAS%3AIND

3. Dollar weakening slightly against other currencies, most notably the Euro:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X

Longer term, the inventory of existing homes for sale is a possible indicator:

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=1395
http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata

Just for chuckles, here is a list of the prime rate. I was once one of the unlucky ones who had a home equity loan at the time the prime was 20%. My hat's off to former Fed Chairman Volcker! Ouch:

http://www.data360.org/dataset.aspx?Data_Set_Id=47