The Non-Science of Campaign Economics

The New York Times had an article today entitled "On Health Plans, the Numbers Fly". The article began with "Economics, it is said, is the dismal science. Anyone paying close attention to the campaign debate over the economics of health care might wonder about the science part."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/22/us/politics/22health.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

It is no sup rise to find that "economics as practiced in the political arena is often “just ideology marketed in the guise of science.”" to quote Dr. Uwe E. Reinhardt, a health economist at Princeton. To quote Dr. Reinhardt further, "It’s garbage in, garbage out....Every econometric study is an effort in persuasion. I have to persuade the other guy that my assumptions are responsible. Depending on what I feed into the model, I get totally different answers....I give a lecture on whether you can trust economists, and I tell them no,” Dr. Reinhardt said. “I tell them that if at the end of the year I tell you the time of day and you trust me, I have failed.”

It has been apparent for some time, that politicians work diligently to "cherry pick" the facts that support their position. Given their penchant for short term thinking, and the overwhelming desire to be elected, I am certain that they can and do say anything necessary to get the vote. Pandering in politics is an art form.

I have found it to be a lot of work to check the facts of the various candidates. That's probably why the vast majority of Americans prefer to go for the candidate that promises the most. It's the easiest and shortest route. Besides, one feels good in selecting a polished candidate. After voting for him or her, I can go back home and feel like I did my patriotic duty and saved the country, again! However, there is ample evidence that these people cannot deliver. They haven't delivered in my life time so what makes one so certain they can or will this time? Perhaps that is the incentive to register all of those 18 year olds out there. They haven't been listening to this for 40 years as I have, and they have the optimism of youth. Unfortunately, that's the same misguided, biologically based optimism which also drives many of them to practice unsafe sex, as well as take undue risks on the highway.

So when we listen to the McCain and Obama political camps spouting health care plans, alternative energy scenarios and budgets, I think it is wise to keep the advice of Dr. Reinhardt in mind.