Monday, October 13, 2008

Ouch!

What else can I say about the latest "bang" to our economy? The market dropped as panic selling took hold. I actually purchased some stock in the past week, looking toward the long term.

Is it gambling? Could be, as our political leaders are as clueless as ever. I watched Sen. Joe Biden at a political rally on C-SPAN and there was Sen. Hillary Clinton, head rhythmically moving up and down, looking so much like a bobble headed doll on his right.

This is getting close to my "worst case" scenario of about a 50% loss. The problem is, we haven't even "officially" entered the recession yet, and already the market was down 43% off it's high set about 1 year ago.

I do have to admit, I am glad the waiting is over. I have been waiting for this "bang" for a few years now. Perhaps it is me, but I really couldn't see how we could avoid this. Too many people way, way overextended, too many people making money by moving money around, too many people always willing to blame someone else, way too many people willing to live beyond their means, and too many people expecting it will all turn out well, no matter what they do.

I have always had confidence in the American system, but the past 10 years have put that confidence under quite a strain. I am of the opinion that we as a nation face quite a "headwind". Americans have been too willing to put their trust in politicians, who really do little but make laws about collecting and spending our money. There is no long term planning! Thanks to the Internet and 100s of cable TV channels, we all have access to the same "information" and the picture is not pretty.

I use the word "information" with some hesitation. There is actually little true information available on the popular media, which has evolved from that age when it bragged that "we don't report the news, we make the news" to the very modern "we are the news". So there's not much reason to watch TV or radio news. Even NPR and PBS are very narrow in their news focus, although there is some air time given to the BBC. While travelling across Nebraska last year, I was delighted to be within range of the Omaha PBS radio station and expected to be able to hear at least a part of General Petraeus testimony before congress. However, the NPR channel had decided to play religious music for the Jewish holy days, instead. So I did not hear that testimony until I returned home and was able to get a copy of the transcript.

Th current financial crisis will, I fear, accelerate the flight from the dollar and further erode our ability as a nation to accomplish the many daunting tasks which do face us. It will also make world cooperation far more difficult as people all over the world have realized that this emperor really doesn't have any clothes!

After reading this, you may wonder if I am optimistic or pessimistic. As a businessperson, I am optimistic. I think that American businesses can and will continue to innovate and to operate successfully within the strictures imposed by our politicians. As a citizen, I am pessimistic. We have no viable energy bill and, for example, the Democrat's proposal of $15B per year for 10 years is laughable and woefully inadequate. We still have 78 million baby-boomers who will be retiring in the near future and a broken social security ponzi scheme. We have a failed medical system in which all comers are rewarded if people are ill. Need I go on?

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