Saturday, July 31, 2010

Keeping the Eye on the Ball

I received an email from an associate. The purpose was to quote an article describing the SEC charges against the Wyly brothers. The subject matter of the email was: "SEC's Wyly brothers charges may depress GOP donations - THESE ARE THE TWO A******S WHO FUNDED THE Swift Boat add (sic) against Kerry 6 years ago."

I saw this as a diversion which is not too significant given the severe economic problems currently experienced in this country. The article stated that the Wyly's had given roughly $2.5 million to Republican candidates and committees during the past 20 years.

Here is the substance of my email response, edited slightly for posting here:

"Hmmm. $2.5 million over 20 years. That’s chump change compared to what the bankers have given to politicians – to both presidents and to congress. Here’s a quote from the April 21, 2010 WSJ:

Since 1990, investment firms and their staff have given a staggering $683 million to federal election campaigns. While Democrats have done better in recent elections, this industry is not partisan: Over two decades the donations have split 51% to Democrats, 48% to Republicans. The GOP got a majority of the money from 1996 through 2004.

On an unrelated matter, but certainly much more important, as a small business man, I’ve been monitoring the Democratic led congress these past four years, and of course, our current President Obama. So how are they doing? It’s important to me and I would expect, to you, as a small business person. But first, I think it’s useful to look at some government statistics. Small businesses, are businesses with less than 500 workers in the non-farm sector of the economy. This is what the Department of Commerce says about “small businesses”.

Small Businesses in the U.S.:
  • Represent 99.7 percent of all employer firms.
  • Employ just over 50 percent of all private sector employees.
  • Pay 44 percent of total U.S. private payroll.
  • Have generated 64 percent of net new jobs over the past 15 years.
  • Create more than 50 percent of the nonfarm private gross domestic product (GDP).
  • Hire 40 percent of high tech workers (such as scientists, engineers, and computer programmers).
  • Are 52 percent home-based and 2 percent franchises.
  • Made up 97.3 percent of all identified exporters and produced 30.2 percent of the known export value in FY 2007.
  • Produce 13 times more patents per employee than large patenting firms; these patents are twice as likely as large firm patents to be among the one percent most cited.”
I provide the above as an indicator of how important to the economy the "engines of small business" really are. Of course, our politicians, and the President are fully aware of this. Most of them are highly educated and many including President Obama are or have been academics.  So how are the President and Congress doing? Well you probably saw Pres. Obama breaking bread with some small business people in a sandwich shop on Wednesday. It got great coverage in the popular media.

Currently, Congress is obfuscating over a bill to create a fund of $30 billion for community banks. That money would be made available to banks at very low interest rates by the government. The banks would repackage this, and making a profit, provide loans to “small business”. An additional $5 billion is also to be available as “tax breaks” to small business. However, I understand that $5 billion is for special tax treatment which will actually benefit large businesses, including Airlines and Telecommunications companies. The name “small business” is being used as a smoke screen. It is likely that none of this money will help or be available to the majority of small businesses in this country.

Returning to the issue of priorities in government, in June, President Obama made a big deal about the 80,000 $250 checks he was sending to seniors to help with their medical payments. That’s $1 Billion that was given away. There were no checks for small business or any of the others in the U.S. for whom insurance is not subsidized by the U.S. government, but is paid by employers. Currently, 3.3 of us are working to for each beneficiary. We pay the taxes to provide SS and Medicare benefits to millions. That's a 7.65% tax on each employee, paid for by the small business employer, to the maximum required by law. There's nothing personal here, but it is a tax, and for many employers, that 7.65% could go elsewhere, including to fund their own and employees retirement 401K or SEP-IRA plans.

I hope you are saving a ton for retirement because the till will be dry. The Boomers will retire at standards below those of current seniors. GEN X will see their retirement life style significantly eroded. GEN Y will starve if they don’t save at least 10 to 15% for retirement.

Clearly, one has to have their priorities as a politician. One also has to be a master at obfuscation and misdirection. And they are.

Small businesses are important, it would seem. However, the government gave better than $60 billion to two automobile manufacturers. Twice what it is even offering to all the small businesses in this country. And what is it offering to small business? Low interest loans so we can pay mandatory expenses, such as SS and Medicare taxes!. I’ll spell this out to you. A bailout of big banks and even General Motors and Chrysler, to the tune of about $1 trillion was made by our government, and yet "small business" is being offered loans that amount to about 3 cents on the dollar. That's right, $30 billion is 3/100 of $1 Trillion. That’s real "chump change"!

So where are the politician’s obligations and priorities? It should be obvious.

Of course, none of this may be of interest to you. However, most small business people I talk to are struggling. Small businesses are usually self- funded with credit cards, cash from operations and in the past, from equity loans on homes. These sources of financing have disappeared for most small businesses, as I am sure you are aware. We are now entering the second phase of the recession in which many strapped businesses have exhausted reserves and credit and are failing. Time is and was of the essence. But for the President and Congress time apparently has no meaning and there is no urgency. That's too bad for the country!

If we had 3.3 workers funding each beneficiary of social security and we are at "unofficial" unemployment or underemployment of 15%, then we now have only 2.85 workers per beneficiary. There is now talk in government about "handling deficits" and even more talk about un-affordable entitlement programs. I see this as a shot across the bow of the middle class, and a warning to us. For the Boomers, be prepared for a retirement below that of current seniors. For the GenX group, I suggest you save more as your life style will be significantly less than that of those today in retirement. and the boomers who proceed you.  For GenY, if you don’t save 10 to 15% of your wages for retirement, be prepared to starve.

Our leaders and politicians have missed a significant window of opportunity and I am now more pessimistic than I was even one year ago.

I hope you are doing well. My worst-case prognosis for the duration of this recession was “about 10 years”. I now see that more and more economists are aligning with that view. I hope you have a plan of substance. You will need it.

Comments, Corrections, Omissions, References
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I've sent abbreviated versions of this to my Congressmen and to the President at the White House. I have asked for a reply and so far, have received one automated response.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Why I am less than Optimistic at this time

We are now in a mild recovery for the current recession. So why aren't people dancing in the streets, why is President Obama's approval rating so low (lower than former Pres. Clinton's even today, according to a recently released poll) and why am I turning more pessimistic by the month?

Our government, which is today, the congressional majority led by President Obama and his administration have made many decisions over the past months. Those decisions, it is my opinion, have assured an economic recovery that will be anemic for years. This is not due solely by current government policy but is due to government policy over the past 25 years.  The current administration is merely accelerating the demise.

Why am I pessimistic at this time? After four years in the currently Democratically controlled Congress and after two years of "change" what has actually occurred? The country is more divisive than ever. Our government spends $billions on a jobs program called the "transportation security administration" but refuses to protect our nation's borders. We have millions of chronically unemployed, and unemployable. Infrastructure building by the government seems limited to roads and highways. How does that help the construction industry and the carpenters, electricians and plumbers, etc.? If there are any jobs being created, they are in government. Small businesses which are financed through cash flow, credit cards and personal reserves, are being starved.

Here are some sobering statistics on small business:

According to government statistics and documents released by the commerce department, "small business" represents 99.7 percent of all employer firms and:

• Employ just over half of all private sector employees.
• Pay 44 percent of total U.S. private payroll.
• Have generated 64 percent of net new jobs over the past 15 years.
• Create more than half of the nonfarm private gross domestic product (GDP).
• Hire 40 percent of high tech workers (such as scientists, engineers, and computer programmers).
• Are 52 percent home-based and 2 percent franchises.
• Made up 97.3 percent of all identified exporters and produced 30.2 percent of the known export value in FY 2007.
• Produce 13 times more patents per employee than large patenting firms; these patents are twice as likely as large firm patents to be among the one percent most cited.

So what is the state of small business today? Another question is "What is government and the Obama Admistration doing to promote and support small business?  The President held a meeting in a sandwich shop on Wednesday. Wonderful!

Some other statistics about the role of government in small business. According to the SBA using U.S. Department of Commerce statistics, here is the cost per employee required by firms to comply with U.S. government federal regulations. Small businesses are those with fewer than 20 employees and large businesses are those with greater than 500 employees:

U.S. Gov't Regulations ---Small businesses --- Large businesses
All Federal Regulations ---$7,647 -------------- $5,282
Environmental Regulation - $3,296 --------------  $710
Economic Regulation ------ $2,127 -------------$2,952
Workplace Regulation ------- $928 --------------- $841
Tax Compliance Regulation - $1,304 --------------$780

While America declines, Congress obfuscates and President Obama makes empty promises and sits down to share a sub sandwich with the unsuspecting dolts. $30 billion is promised for community banks as low cost loans for small businesses, but can't get through congress. Another $5.5 billion is earmarked in legislation labelled "Small Business Assistance" and yet, most of that, it seems will go to "big business" including the airlines and telecommunications industry. $30 billion is 3 percent of $1 trillion. That's like 3 cents on the dollar. Chump change for chumps. Yep, my tax dollars at work! We are so easy, aren't we?

Congress Intends to Help Small Business?

President Obama made a speech earlier this week about "helping small business". The congress has been wrangling over a small business bill that would provide $30 billion in low cost loans to community banks (at 5.0%) that in turn offer loans to small businesses. The bill would also provide about $12 billion in tax breaks. The Republicans in congress have been arguing with the Democrats over the bill, and Republicans say they are being blocked by Democrats from making any changes to the bill.

Let me get this straight. A bailout of big banks and even General Motors, to the tune of about $1 trillion was made by our government, and yet "small business" is being offered loans that amount to about 3 cents on the dollar. That's right, $30 billion is 3/100 of $1 Trillion. Wow, talk about "chump change"!

So much for political help for "small business". Here are some statistics from the U.S. Government Small Business Administration website.

How important are small businesses to the U.S. economy? Small businesses, which are businesses with less than 500 workers in the non-farm sector of the economy:

  • Represent 99.7 percent of all employer firms.
  • Employ just over 50 percent of all private sector employees.
  • Pay 44 percent of total U.S. private payroll.
  • Have generated 64 percent of net new jobs over the past 15 years.
  • Create more than 50 percent of the nonfarm private gross domestic product (GDP).
  • Hire 40 percent of high tech workers (such as scientists, engineers, and computer programmers).
  • Are 52 percent home-based and 2 percent franchises.
  • Made up 97.3 percent of all identified exporters and produced 30.2 percent of the known export value in FY 2007.
  • Produce 13 times more patents per employee than large patenting firms; these patents are twice as likely as large firm patents to be among the one percent most cited.